Sunday, October 02, 2005
Friday, September 30, 2005
Worst Mariner Free-Agent Signings Ever?
From Bob Finigan in the Times:
Really? Scott Spiezio is the worst Mariner free agent of all time? My first thought was that if that's true, the M's haven't done too badly avoiding terrible free agent signings. So I did some reasearch (the operative word being "some").
Most of the really bad contracts we remember were indeed trades: Jeff Cirillo, Al Martin, and Kevin Mitchell all come to mind. But what are the worst free-agent contracts, bad from from start to finish, in Mariner history?
Here are some candidates:
So how do we pick the worst? If I had calculated Win Shares, Hibbard's has undoubtedly got to be the worst dollar-per-win-share there, since he played so little. However, and argument could be made that its worse to both pay AND play a bad player, because it makes your team worse and costs you a lot of money. Pete O'Brien's scores high in this regard.
So I don't have a diffinitive answer, but I think a few things are clear:
1) The M's don't have any Mike Hamptons or Derek Bells on their rap sheet. Their conservative approach to contracts--well, that and their history miserly owners--has help them avoid castastrophically bad contracts.
2) Milt Wilcox, while certainly bad, can't come close to qualifying as a "worst free agent in M's history, even if the average MLB salary in 1986 was $411K. (in 2002, it was $2.4M).
3) Scott Spiezio does belong on this list, though $9M dollars today isn't as bad as O'Brien's $7.6M in the early 90s.
Am I forgetting anyone? Are there more factors we should consider? This is one I'd really appreciate some feedback on.
| By late August, Bloomquist was also injured and Spiezio was dumped to the relief of all, ending a free-agent signing that wiped out Greg Hibbard and Milt Wilcox as the worst in club history — unless one counts (or even remembers) [Pokey] Reese. |
Really? Scott Spiezio is the worst Mariner free agent of all time? My first thought was that if that's true, the M's haven't done too badly avoiding terrible free agent signings. So I did some reasearch (the operative word being "some").
Most of the really bad contracts we remember were indeed trades: Jeff Cirillo, Al Martin, and Kevin Mitchell all come to mind. But what are the worst free-agent contracts, bad from from start to finish, in Mariner history?
Here are some candidates:
| Player | Contract Value | Year(s) | Comments |
| Milt Wilcox | $150,000 | 1986 | 10 games started, 0-8, 56 IP, 5.50 ERA |
| Greg Hibbard | $8.3M | 1994-1997 | In '94, was 1-5 in 14 starts with a 6.69 ERA; was injured and never played again after that. |
| Pete O'Brien | $7.6M | 1990-1993 | In four years (all as a starter), O'Brien managed a .237/.304/.366 line in a position (1B and DH) where most teams get their hitting and power |
| Scott Spiezio | $9M | 2004-2006 | Sandfrog's leading man averaged .198/.283/.340 as a corner infielder over 414 ABs before being released this year. |
| Mike Felder | $850,000 | 1993 | Suggested by Peter White's inclusion of Felder in the worst Mariner seasons ever, Felder hit .211/.262/.269 in 342 ABs. |
So how do we pick the worst? If I had calculated Win Shares, Hibbard's has undoubtedly got to be the worst dollar-per-win-share there, since he played so little. However, and argument could be made that its worse to both pay AND play a bad player, because it makes your team worse and costs you a lot of money. Pete O'Brien's scores high in this regard.
So I don't have a diffinitive answer, but I think a few things are clear:
1) The M's don't have any Mike Hamptons or Derek Bells on their rap sheet. Their conservative approach to contracts--well, that and their history miserly owners--has help them avoid castastrophically bad contracts.
2) Milt Wilcox, while certainly bad, can't come close to qualifying as a "worst free agent in M's history, even if the average MLB salary in 1986 was $411K. (in 2002, it was $2.4M).
3) Scott Spiezio does belong on this list, though $9M dollars today isn't as bad as O'Brien's $7.6M in the early 90s.
Am I forgetting anyone? Are there more factors we should consider? This is one I'd really appreciate some feedback on.
Thursday, September 08, 2005
In the bleak late-summer...
...we remember. Dave Cameron got all nostalgic over at USS Mariner, and it was fun to reminisce with others about the days of yore. Even 1986, when the M's were terrible, but when I began to really root for them.
Thursday, August 18, 2005
What happened to Joel Pineiro?
Two years ago, Joel Pineiro was going to be the linchpin of our future rotation, backed up by a plethora of young arms nearing the majors. Those young arms haven't worked out so well for mostly medical reasons. Besides, young pitchers are risky commodities, being so prone to injury. But Pineiro was a good bet. What happened?
Why have we gone from extolling his virtures to calling for his outright release? He's been a lousy pitcher this year, mostly because of he's lost the ability to strike batters out. Look at this:
The best theory I've heard to explain this is that Pineiro's health isn't at 100%, and he doesn't quite have the velocity he once did. Batters put the ball in play when they use to miss entirely, and are making solid contact when they didn't before, because they have a little bit longer to adjust. Or, a lingering injury is compromising his control.
Either way, the cause would be an injury--which is far different from saying that he simply lost the ability to pitch. If Joel is injured, then that problem needs to be diagnosed first, before we give up on him. We need to know if this is an injury that will keep him from being good again (see "labrum, torn"), or one that, once healed, will not prevent him from returing to form. Calling for Pineiro's release now is absurdly premature.
Why have we gone from extolling his virtures to calling for his outright release? He's been a lousy pitcher this year, mostly because of he's lost the ability to strike batters out. Look at this:
We can see that, in 01 and 03, he did a better job (if we're going to give him credit for it) keeping hitters from making solid contact. Batting Average on Balls In Play and Slugging Allowed were both down those years. He walked more batters in 03, but took care of that in '04. This year, however, the big change is in his inability to strike batters out. Coupled with a much higher BABIP, it has spelled disaster.
YEAR ERA IP K/9 BB/9 BABIP SLG
2000 5.59 19.1 4.7 6.1 .333 .481
2001 2.03 75.1 6.7 2.5 .235 .263
2002 3.24 194.1 6.3 2.5 .285 .411
2003 3.78 212.2 6.4 3.2 .276 .359
2004 4.67 141.2 7.1 2.7 .299 .442
2005 5.56 139.1 4.8 2.8 .319 .468
The best theory I've heard to explain this is that Pineiro's health isn't at 100%, and he doesn't quite have the velocity he once did. Batters put the ball in play when they use to miss entirely, and are making solid contact when they didn't before, because they have a little bit longer to adjust. Or, a lingering injury is compromising his control.
Either way, the cause would be an injury--which is far different from saying that he simply lost the ability to pitch. If Joel is injured, then that problem needs to be diagnosed first, before we give up on him. We need to know if this is an injury that will keep him from being good again (see "labrum, torn"), or one that, once healed, will not prevent him from returing to form. Calling for Pineiro's release now is absurdly premature.
Monday, August 15, 2005
Middle Infielders, Musical Chairs
Tonights lineup includes:
3B - Bloomquist
LF - Ibanez
DH - Beltre
...
SS - Morse2B - Betancourt
If you patrol any of the comments over at USSMariner, you'll see that a lot of folks wonder what the point of sacrificing your infield defense when Hernandez--an extreme groundball pitcher--is on the mound. Beltre and Betancourt are clearly the superior defenders for the left side of the infield. Furthermore, they muse, why isn't Jose Lopez, he of the .911 OPS at AAA, up to play second anyway? It would be as simple as releasing Speizio, who's not doing anything for anybody right now.
It's fashionable to pile on the M's these days, and it's easy to take pot-shots at the management and roster construction with the team playing so poorly. But there are legitimate explanations for tonight's lineup:
Hernandez, of all M's pitchers, relies on his defense the least. If you're going to give Beltre a break, get Morse some at-bats, let Ibanez remember what a glove feels like, this is the night to do it. As David Cameron pointed out on tonight's game thread at USSMariner, Morse has never played anything except shortstop, and Betancourt will still be very effective at second.
And there are legitmate reasons for the current roster:
Lopez played very poorly in his audition in the majors this year. He didn't get a long look, but what opportunites he got, he squandered, managing a microscopic .545 OPS in 24 games (80 plate appearances). Lopez clearly is the future at second, so the M's should be thinking about his developmental first and foremost. That likely means getting him regular plate appearances and not messing with his psyche nor ruining his confidence. Tacoma is the best place for this.
Even if regular major league at-bats were desirable for Lopez, he'd have to displace Betancourt or Bloomquist, neither of which are going to appeal to the Mariners. Bloomquist, for all the moaning at USSM, is having a fine second half (coincidentally hitting a triple in tonight's game), and is a fan favorite. He'll be on the roster next year, and he provides some measure of offense, so he does help keep a few more fans trickling in. Replacing Betancourt compromises your defense by requiring either Bloomquist or Morse to man short, and either pushes Betancourt to the bench or back to Tacoma. Exchanging one future regular infielder for the other isn't much use. Finally, replacing Speizio means somebody has to go to the bench.
Tonight's lineup is unusual, for sure, but it's hardly evidence that the M's don't know what they're doing. I look forward to see Lopez next year, but nobody needs him to displace one of the current regulars only to struggle at the plate.
3B - Bloomquist
LF - Ibanez
DH - Beltre
...
SS - Morse2B - Betancourt
If you patrol any of the comments over at USSMariner, you'll see that a lot of folks wonder what the point of sacrificing your infield defense when Hernandez--an extreme groundball pitcher--is on the mound. Beltre and Betancourt are clearly the superior defenders for the left side of the infield. Furthermore, they muse, why isn't Jose Lopez, he of the .911 OPS at AAA, up to play second anyway? It would be as simple as releasing Speizio, who's not doing anything for anybody right now.
It's fashionable to pile on the M's these days, and it's easy to take pot-shots at the management and roster construction with the team playing so poorly. But there are legitimate explanations for tonight's lineup:
Hernandez, of all M's pitchers, relies on his defense the least. If you're going to give Beltre a break, get Morse some at-bats, let Ibanez remember what a glove feels like, this is the night to do it. As David Cameron pointed out on tonight's game thread at USSMariner, Morse has never played anything except shortstop, and Betancourt will still be very effective at second.
And there are legitmate reasons for the current roster:
Lopez played very poorly in his audition in the majors this year. He didn't get a long look, but what opportunites he got, he squandered, managing a microscopic .545 OPS in 24 games (80 plate appearances). Lopez clearly is the future at second, so the M's should be thinking about his developmental first and foremost. That likely means getting him regular plate appearances and not messing with his psyche nor ruining his confidence. Tacoma is the best place for this.
Even if regular major league at-bats were desirable for Lopez, he'd have to displace Betancourt or Bloomquist, neither of which are going to appeal to the Mariners. Bloomquist, for all the moaning at USSM, is having a fine second half (coincidentally hitting a triple in tonight's game), and is a fan favorite. He'll be on the roster next year, and he provides some measure of offense, so he does help keep a few more fans trickling in. Replacing Betancourt compromises your defense by requiring either Bloomquist or Morse to man short, and either pushes Betancourt to the bench or back to Tacoma. Exchanging one future regular infielder for the other isn't much use. Finally, replacing Speizio means somebody has to go to the bench.
Tonight's lineup is unusual, for sure, but it's hardly evidence that the M's don't know what they're doing. I look forward to see Lopez next year, but nobody needs him to displace one of the current regulars only to struggle at the plate.
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Recent Games
Day1: Snelling ignites a comeback.
Day 2:Felix shows why he's the heir apparent.
Day 3:Willie Bloomquist boots it.
Top of the Ninth, with Guardado going for his 29th consecutive save, and Bloomquist throws the ball away, giving the Twins' Michael Cuddyer an extra base to add to his infield single. That extra base would prove critical, as Cuddyer's pinch runner would score on the next play, a left-field single.
Betancourt gets on base to lead off the ninth, and Chris Snelling, of all people, bunts, so that the fearsome Wiki Gonzalez can drive Betancourt in. I can understand playing for one run in this situation generally, but you don't have Snelling bunt when he's followed by Gonzalez. Really, why is Snelling down there in the order anyway? Especially when, after a groundout and an intentional walk to Ichiro, Willie Bloomquist is up to bat?
"Time for him to redeem himself," says Dave Valle. "The hottest hitter on the Mariners for the last six weeks," says Rizzs. "That can't be right," I say to the TV. Yes, I talk to the TV. You gotta problem?
Since the beginning of July, Bloomquist actually has done very well. But he hasn't been the best hitter on the M's during that time. He is tied for second in average (.314), with Sexson, over that period, trailing Ichiro (.324). Sexson blows everyone else out of the water in OBP (.407) and SLG (.645). So while Bloomquist has hit for a good average over the last six weeks, he certainly isn't the guy you want when you can't afford to make an out. No, for that you'd want Ibanez, Ichiro, or--you guessed it--Chris Snelling, all of whom have a better OBP.
Day 2:Felix shows why he's the heir apparent.
Day 3:Willie Bloomquist boots it.
Top of the Ninth, with Guardado going for his 29th consecutive save, and Bloomquist throws the ball away, giving the Twins' Michael Cuddyer an extra base to add to his infield single. That extra base would prove critical, as Cuddyer's pinch runner would score on the next play, a left-field single.
Betancourt gets on base to lead off the ninth, and Chris Snelling, of all people, bunts, so that the fearsome Wiki Gonzalez can drive Betancourt in. I can understand playing for one run in this situation generally, but you don't have Snelling bunt when he's followed by Gonzalez. Really, why is Snelling down there in the order anyway? Especially when, after a groundout and an intentional walk to Ichiro, Willie Bloomquist is up to bat?
"Time for him to redeem himself," says Dave Valle. "The hottest hitter on the Mariners for the last six weeks," says Rizzs. "That can't be right," I say to the TV. Yes, I talk to the TV. You gotta problem?
Since the beginning of July, Bloomquist actually has done very well. But he hasn't been the best hitter on the M's during that time. He is tied for second in average (.314), with Sexson, over that period, trailing Ichiro (.324). Sexson blows everyone else out of the water in OBP (.407) and SLG (.645). So while Bloomquist has hit for a good average over the last six weeks, he certainly isn't the guy you want when you can't afford to make an out. No, for that you'd want Ibanez, Ichiro, or--you guessed it--Chris Snelling, all of whom have a better OBP.
Thursday, July 21, 2005
Why this isn't 1995
Apparently, the Mariners still aren't convinced they have no hope of reaching the post-season. So says Larry Stone. The wonderful ride of 1995 enables us to think nothing is impossible. But we're in a much different place than in 1995. John McGrath agrees, but doesn't get into details. I will.
Today, the Mariners have 10 days till the trading deadline. They are 41-52, 14 games out of 1st place and seven games out of third place. They are ten games out from the wild card, with eight teams ahead of them in the wild card standings.
In 1995, this is what the standings looked like in the AL West on July 21st:
Moreover, in this strike-shortened season, the season up to this point did not carry the same significance. That is, the 93 games the Mariners have played this year are a greater body of evidence to their true ability than the 78 games played on this date in 1995. The Mariners have had 15 more games this year to show how bad they are.
In addition, the 1995 M's had individual reasons for optimism: an ace starter, who would go on to lead the league in ERA and W-L percentage (Johnson), a designated hitter who would go on to lead the league in batting average, OBP, and doubles (Martinez), and a perennial all-star scheduled to return from injury (Griffey). Power and timely hitting came from Jay Buhner and Tino Martinez, who, along with Edgar, were 3rd, 4th, and 5th in RBIs.
The M's don't have the players they did in 1995, particularly anyone that comes close to what Johnson did. But more importantly, they are nearly twice as many games from a post-season berth this year--in either the divisional or wild-card race. In the wild card race, they are looking up at six more teams than in 1995.
Making the post-season this year would be even more improbable than in 1995. The next chance the M's have of making the post season starts in the spring of 2006, and they need to act accordingly.
Today, the Mariners have 10 days till the trading deadline. They are 41-52, 14 games out of 1st place and seven games out of third place. They are ten games out from the wild card, with eight teams ahead of them in the wild card standings.
In 1995, this is what the standings looked like in the AL West on July 21st:
Team W - L Games BehindThough hanging on by a thread, the Mariners were clearly not wildy irrational in 1995 to shoot for a strong finish and a possible first post-season berth in franchise history. (They acquired Norm Charlton on June 14th, and traded for Andy Benes on July 31st.) Though their run to the division title was improbable--it required both a Mariner surge and an Angel collapse--the Wild Card was still within reach.
California 46 - 32 -
Texas 42 - 36 4
Seattle 38 - 40 8
Oakland 39 - 42 8.5
And the Wild Card Standings on 7-21-1995:
Team W - L Games Behind
Texas 42 - 36 -
Baltimore 38 - 39 3.5
Seattle 38 - 40 4
Kansas City 36 - 39 4.5
Oakland 39 - 42 4.5
New York 36 - 40 5
...
Moreover, in this strike-shortened season, the season up to this point did not carry the same significance. That is, the 93 games the Mariners have played this year are a greater body of evidence to their true ability than the 78 games played on this date in 1995. The Mariners have had 15 more games this year to show how bad they are.
In addition, the 1995 M's had individual reasons for optimism: an ace starter, who would go on to lead the league in ERA and W-L percentage (Johnson), a designated hitter who would go on to lead the league in batting average, OBP, and doubles (Martinez), and a perennial all-star scheduled to return from injury (Griffey). Power and timely hitting came from Jay Buhner and Tino Martinez, who, along with Edgar, were 3rd, 4th, and 5th in RBIs.
The M's don't have the players they did in 1995, particularly anyone that comes close to what Johnson did. But more importantly, they are nearly twice as many games from a post-season berth this year--in either the divisional or wild-card race. In the wild card race, they are looking up at six more teams than in 1995.
Making the post-season this year would be even more improbable than in 1995. The next chance the M's have of making the post season starts in the spring of 2006, and they need to act accordingly.
Saturday, July 16, 2005
Baserunning mistakes
Two important ones tonight:
Morse, trying to stretch a double, loafs out of the box to first, and only turns it on when he sees how deep the ball went into the gap. Then he slides into third on the outfield side of the bag, making the tag easy for Baltimore's third baseman.
Second, Ichiro fails to tag up on a deep, deep fly ball to right center with one out in the bottom of the eighth. A passed ball, an infield hit, or a sharp liner to center gives the M's a lead if Ichiro goes to third. As I type that, we'll see if Sexson can still drive him in. But he should have tagged.
Update: Well, we won anyway. Thanks to a huge Baltimore error, in part, but Morse did his job driving in Beltre.
Morse, trying to stretch a double, loafs out of the box to first, and only turns it on when he sees how deep the ball went into the gap. Then he slides into third on the outfield side of the bag, making the tag easy for Baltimore's third baseman.
Second, Ichiro fails to tag up on a deep, deep fly ball to right center with one out in the bottom of the eighth. A passed ball, an infield hit, or a sharp liner to center gives the M's a lead if Ichiro goes to third. As I type that, we'll see if Sexson can still drive him in. But he should have tagged.
Update: Well, we won anyway. Thanks to a huge Baltimore error, in part, but Morse did his job driving in Beltre.
Making the second half useful.
It's time to stop drifting. The M's season is ending after game 162, and they need to think and act strategically for next season, now.
That means finding a coherent strategy for catching next year. Borders ain't it, and if it's going to be Olivo, then the M's need to develop and execute a coherent plan, not continue the current situation, which makes no sense.
They've made the right call with playing Lopez everyday (though how DFA'ing Boone did anything but completely undermine any trading leverage they had is beyond me). It's time to do the same with Chris Snelling. The M's have 3 viable young outfielders next year to go with Ichiro (add Ibanez if you want): Reed, Snelling, and Choo. Winn is expendable, and should garner something decent in a trade. And there is absolutely NO excuse for using Spiezio as a pinch hitter over Snelling, if the young Australian isn't already in the game.
Pitching? Most are expendable in trades, though I'd be loathe to trade Pineiro now, when his trade value is low. He should slip nicely behind Felix next year. Let's give Jorge Campillo a chance to show if he can be at least as effective as Meche (without the arb-eligible salary), who is trade fodder. Nelson and Hasegawa don't have a future with the M's. Bring up George Sherrill and get him the innings in the Show.
Obviously, it's easy for armchair GMs to say "Trade Player X!" when we're not the ones on the phones trying to get value for value. But the current treatment of Snelling and Olivo suggests the M's are still drifting aimlessly, not acting purposefully.
The one objection I can imagine being raised is something along the lines of "what message does it send to the fans to give up on this season?" That's a lazy cop-out. If the concern is with P.R., the answer is to do what good politicians do: stay on message. For example:
What does is say to your fans to trading Player X?
"It says we are committed to turning this franchise into a winning one, consistently. We have some great outfielders that can step in, and are using this trade to improve our pitching."
Will you miss veteran leadership of Player Y?
"Our chief concern is giving experience to the players we believe will make us a winning team for years to come."
What do you say to fans who don't want to go through a rebuilding phase?
"Fans know this team needs to improve. We took some important steps last year, but we are not going to pretend that was enough; we're going to improve this team further, and do it now, so fans won't have to endure a long rebuilding phase. Beyond that, these new young players are exciting to watch."
All this requires strong leadership that has the vision, courage, and determination to improve the team and articulate that vision without apology.
That means finding a coherent strategy for catching next year. Borders ain't it, and if it's going to be Olivo, then the M's need to develop and execute a coherent plan, not continue the current situation, which makes no sense.
They've made the right call with playing Lopez everyday (though how DFA'ing Boone did anything but completely undermine any trading leverage they had is beyond me). It's time to do the same with Chris Snelling. The M's have 3 viable young outfielders next year to go with Ichiro (add Ibanez if you want): Reed, Snelling, and Choo. Winn is expendable, and should garner something decent in a trade. And there is absolutely NO excuse for using Spiezio as a pinch hitter over Snelling, if the young Australian isn't already in the game.
Pitching? Most are expendable in trades, though I'd be loathe to trade Pineiro now, when his trade value is low. He should slip nicely behind Felix next year. Let's give Jorge Campillo a chance to show if he can be at least as effective as Meche (without the arb-eligible salary), who is trade fodder. Nelson and Hasegawa don't have a future with the M's. Bring up George Sherrill and get him the innings in the Show.
Obviously, it's easy for armchair GMs to say "Trade Player X!" when we're not the ones on the phones trying to get value for value. But the current treatment of Snelling and Olivo suggests the M's are still drifting aimlessly, not acting purposefully.
The one objection I can imagine being raised is something along the lines of "what message does it send to the fans to give up on this season?" That's a lazy cop-out. If the concern is with P.R., the answer is to do what good politicians do: stay on message. For example:
What does is say to your fans to trading Player X?
"It says we are committed to turning this franchise into a winning one, consistently. We have some great outfielders that can step in, and are using this trade to improve our pitching."
Will you miss veteran leadership of Player Y?
"Our chief concern is giving experience to the players we believe will make us a winning team for years to come."
What do you say to fans who don't want to go through a rebuilding phase?
"Fans know this team needs to improve. We took some important steps last year, but we are not going to pretend that was enough; we're going to improve this team further, and do it now, so fans won't have to endure a long rebuilding phase. Beyond that, these new young players are exciting to watch."
All this requires strong leadership that has the vision, courage, and determination to improve the team and articulate that vision without apology.
Thursday, July 14, 2005
Protecting our homeland
I can rest easier at night knowing that our homeland is safe from the terror of cheap knock-offs. In a post-9-11 world, we can take no chances.
Friday, July 08, 2005
Blogosphere Evolution
It continues. See the sidebar for newer blogs and a new section for old blogs that look about as active as the M's pitching. I've also removed some who, sadly, have not found the time or energy to continue.
I think there's a little bit of fairweather fan in most of us, who have a lot to say when the team is good, and have a much harder time when all we've got to look forward to is half of an inevitably bad season. Nonetheless, its pretty easy to find something interesting about the Mariners every day on one of the many blogs out there, something I very much appreciate.
I think there's a little bit of fairweather fan in most of us, who have a lot to say when the team is good, and have a much harder time when all we've got to look forward to is half of an inevitably bad season. Nonetheless, its pretty easy to find something interesting about the Mariners every day on one of the many blogs out there, something I very much appreciate.
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Notes from July 5th
So I said hi to Ichiro yesterday.
I was in a local Starbucks, and see a guy in line who, I think to myself, looks vaguely like Ichiro. Wait a minute...the Mariners are in town...that IS Ichiro!
So, I went up to him--he was with someone I assumed was with the team (maybe a translator or travel secretary?)--and told he had a good game yesterday, that I was a big fan from Seattle. He said thanks, and got his latte. I know that sounds lame now, but you don't just run into international superstar baseball players from Seattle every day, especially not in Kansas City.
I went to the game again last night. Beltre's home run was a good start, but things went downhill from there. I can report firsthand that what everyone says about Gil Meche is true: great stuff, inconsistent command. His curve was knee-buckling when it was on, but he couldn't throw it for strikes consistently (leaving him behind in the count) and his fastball was up and over the middle (leaving the ball right in KC's hitters wheelhouses). It was a bad combination that the M's couldn't recover from.
Randy Winn looks lost at the plate, even though he did end up with two hits, including a double. He's swinging at bad pitches and looking at good ones. Richie Sexson doesn't look much better, though he also had a similar night. Everybody's going to get some hits in a game where your team swats 14 of them, unless, of course, your name is Pat Borders.
I was really excited to see Snelling up to pinch-hit for Borders in the 8th. Then Buddy Bell made a pitching change, and Snelling got immediately replaced by Scott Spiezio, never taking a pitch. Maybe next time, Chris.
One great thing about baseball is that anything, no matter how unlikely, can happen. I grumbled at the game's start that Hargrove, for some stupid reason, is trying to keep Willie Bloomquist in the starting lineup at all costs. "He can't hit," I said. Well, Willie went 3-3 with a double and a walk. He still may be a 25th-man quality player over the long haul, but he did his part yesterday.
In fact, the difference in this game was mostly in the timing of each team's hitting. The M's finished with more total bases + walks, but KC made the most of their baserunners. They scored four runs in the second with two outs--both strikeouts, no less--with the bottom of the order. If J.J. Putz gets his groundball out first when he enters in the 6th, the run doesn't score (Putz gave up two consecutive flyballs that allowed Shane Costa to move from second to third, then score).
Oh, and I caught a Randy Winn foul ball in the eighth.
I was in a local Starbucks, and see a guy in line who, I think to myself, looks vaguely like Ichiro. Wait a minute...the Mariners are in town...that IS Ichiro!
So, I went up to him--he was with someone I assumed was with the team (maybe a translator or travel secretary?)--and told he had a good game yesterday, that I was a big fan from Seattle. He said thanks, and got his latte. I know that sounds lame now, but you don't just run into international superstar baseball players from Seattle every day, especially not in Kansas City.
I went to the game again last night. Beltre's home run was a good start, but things went downhill from there. I can report firsthand that what everyone says about Gil Meche is true: great stuff, inconsistent command. His curve was knee-buckling when it was on, but he couldn't throw it for strikes consistently (leaving him behind in the count) and his fastball was up and over the middle (leaving the ball right in KC's hitters wheelhouses). It was a bad combination that the M's couldn't recover from.
Randy Winn looks lost at the plate, even though he did end up with two hits, including a double. He's swinging at bad pitches and looking at good ones. Richie Sexson doesn't look much better, though he also had a similar night. Everybody's going to get some hits in a game where your team swats 14 of them, unless, of course, your name is Pat Borders.
I was really excited to see Snelling up to pinch-hit for Borders in the 8th. Then Buddy Bell made a pitching change, and Snelling got immediately replaced by Scott Spiezio, never taking a pitch. Maybe next time, Chris.
One great thing about baseball is that anything, no matter how unlikely, can happen. I grumbled at the game's start that Hargrove, for some stupid reason, is trying to keep Willie Bloomquist in the starting lineup at all costs. "He can't hit," I said. Well, Willie went 3-3 with a double and a walk. He still may be a 25th-man quality player over the long haul, but he did his part yesterday.
In fact, the difference in this game was mostly in the timing of each team's hitting. The M's finished with more total bases + walks, but KC made the most of their baserunners. They scored four runs in the second with two outs--both strikeouts, no less--with the bottom of the order. If J.J. Putz gets his groundball out first when he enters in the 6th, the run doesn't score (Putz gave up two consecutive flyballs that allowed Shane Costa to move from second to third, then score).
Oh, and I caught a Randy Winn foul ball in the eighth.
Monday, July 04, 2005
Independence Day Game Notes
I went to the game today, though with nosebleed seats (I was with friends and didn't bother to move down to good seats, which is always possible at Kauffman), I don't know how much more I'll be able to tell than someone who saw the game on TV.
Ibanez' homerun was a line drive that just kept going--the collective groan by Royals fans happened not on contact, but only after it just cleared the fence. Mike Morse took a walk, on a 3-1 count, no less. Nice to see Ichiro getting legit hits, as he went 3-for-5. This is the way an offense is supposed to work. Now if only every other team was as hapless as the Royals...
Beltre had some great plays on D, including an over-the-shoulder catch on a pop foul. Willie Bloomquist seems to have a pretty decent arm, actually, for a centerfielder, though he did slighly misjudge what became a Dejesus double--if he hadn't started in first, he could have caught the ball. To be fair, it was hit right at him, which is hard to judge. Franklin worked quickly and did his job, though he never looked dominating. I was surprised when my friend pointed out at the top of the fifth that he hadn't allowed a hit.
Much of this win goes to an absolutely pathetic Royals offense, and a lot of the rest of the credit goes to pathetic Royal pitching. You think the M's are strugling? Mercy. From local post-game radio: new Royals manager Buddy Bell's prescription for the slumping offense is to "be more agressive" because that will "improve their plate discipline." "Maybe that sounds bass-ackwards," he said, but he stuck to that theory. Seriously. Hey, if I had to pick between Bell and Bob Melvin, I'd have made the same choice the M's did.
The fireworks afterwords were great, and we could see smaller stuff going on beyond the outfield all game long. It was not a particularly exciting game, mind you, but the K is a beautiful stadium, the weather was great, and the M's won.
Ibanez' homerun was a line drive that just kept going--the collective groan by Royals fans happened not on contact, but only after it just cleared the fence. Mike Morse took a walk, on a 3-1 count, no less. Nice to see Ichiro getting legit hits, as he went 3-for-5. This is the way an offense is supposed to work. Now if only every other team was as hapless as the Royals...
Beltre had some great plays on D, including an over-the-shoulder catch on a pop foul. Willie Bloomquist seems to have a pretty decent arm, actually, for a centerfielder, though he did slighly misjudge what became a Dejesus double--if he hadn't started in first, he could have caught the ball. To be fair, it was hit right at him, which is hard to judge. Franklin worked quickly and did his job, though he never looked dominating. I was surprised when my friend pointed out at the top of the fifth that he hadn't allowed a hit.
Much of this win goes to an absolutely pathetic Royals offense, and a lot of the rest of the credit goes to pathetic Royal pitching. You think the M's are strugling? Mercy. From local post-game radio: new Royals manager Buddy Bell's prescription for the slumping offense is to "be more agressive" because that will "improve their plate discipline." "Maybe that sounds bass-ackwards," he said, but he stuck to that theory. Seriously. Hey, if I had to pick between Bell and Bob Melvin, I'd have made the same choice the M's did.
The fireworks afterwords were great, and we could see smaller stuff going on beyond the outfield all game long. It was not a particularly exciting game, mind you, but the K is a beautiful stadium, the weather was great, and the M's won.
Monday, June 27, 2005
Potential Trading Partners
No, I am not dead. I have not quit being a Mariners fan. I have not given up blogging. I was in Europe for two weeks, my lovely wife and I are going to be moving into our first home in a month, and the Mariners haven't had enough going on that either excites me or frustrates me enough to forsake other things to write about. Okay, done with excuses.
Briefly: I'm going to try to identify potential trading partners with the Mariners, based on needs of each team. The Twins aren't looking for a young catcher. The Rangers aren't looking for a second baseman. The White Sox aren't looking for anyone. Nor are the Devil Rays, but for a very different reason.
Who do the Mariners have to give, realistically? Boone, obviously, with rumors already swirling about him going to San Diego. Surprisingly, Moyer has also been mentioned--I think that's a very shrewd move, but not likely to go over well with the sentimental part of the fan base. Winn's an obvious choice, too. We have Ichiro and three other young outfielders (Reed being the most advanced), so the Mariners could dangle one of those, too. Below, I've identified potential trading partners grouped by tradee.
Bret Boone
San Diego: As the rumor reports have said, Boone could be seen as an upgrade to Damian Jackson. The Padres lead only the Nationals and Astros in slugging in the NL, and have the worst composite SLG for their 2nd basemen in the majors.
Randy Winn
Atlanta: 2.5 games back of the Nats and leading in the Wild Card, the Braves are 7th in the NL in OPS, and could use a serious upgrade to their outfield; Andruw Jones is the only real offensive threat.
Florida: If they ever realize Juan Pierre can't steal first base, Winn could provide some offense in center, leaving Pierre to pinch-run and play defense, which are his strengths.
Yankees: If you're putting Tony Womack in left field, you need some help. Hey, if you're the Yankees, you always need one more player. Last I heard, however, GM Brian Cashman has little to offer in the way of prospects anymore.
Jamie Moyer
Baltimore: Eric Bedard is out for a month, and the O's can't afford to lose ground in a division with the Yankess and Red Sox. Plus, the back end of the rotation is underwhelming, even when Bedard returns.
Philadelphia: Randy Wolf is out with injuries, and the Phils might be feeling the heat to make a move after several years of underachieving. There only barely still in the running, 5.5 back of the Nats but in fourth place.
L.A. (Dodgers, of course; I refuse to say the Angels are from L.A.): Not a great candidate, but Odalis Perez is recovering from injury and Jeff Weaver wishes it was three years ago in Detroit, when he was good.
Well, there are a few of the possibilities. San Diego is really the only contending team for which Boone would be an upgrade at second. Both Winn and Moyer are the sort of player that teams want to add for a penant run--not too pricey, little to no long-term commitment, experience. The only problem is that some of the divisional titles are quickly becoming unrealistic goals for a lot of teams.
Briefly: I'm going to try to identify potential trading partners with the Mariners, based on needs of each team. The Twins aren't looking for a young catcher. The Rangers aren't looking for a second baseman. The White Sox aren't looking for anyone. Nor are the Devil Rays, but for a very different reason.
Who do the Mariners have to give, realistically? Boone, obviously, with rumors already swirling about him going to San Diego. Surprisingly, Moyer has also been mentioned--I think that's a very shrewd move, but not likely to go over well with the sentimental part of the fan base. Winn's an obvious choice, too. We have Ichiro and three other young outfielders (Reed being the most advanced), so the Mariners could dangle one of those, too. Below, I've identified potential trading partners grouped by tradee.
Bret Boone
San Diego: As the rumor reports have said, Boone could be seen as an upgrade to Damian Jackson. The Padres lead only the Nationals and Astros in slugging in the NL, and have the worst composite SLG for their 2nd basemen in the majors.
Randy Winn
Atlanta: 2.5 games back of the Nats and leading in the Wild Card, the Braves are 7th in the NL in OPS, and could use a serious upgrade to their outfield; Andruw Jones is the only real offensive threat.
Florida: If they ever realize Juan Pierre can't steal first base, Winn could provide some offense in center, leaving Pierre to pinch-run and play defense, which are his strengths.
Yankees: If you're putting Tony Womack in left field, you need some help. Hey, if you're the Yankees, you always need one more player. Last I heard, however, GM Brian Cashman has little to offer in the way of prospects anymore.
Jamie Moyer
Baltimore: Eric Bedard is out for a month, and the O's can't afford to lose ground in a division with the Yankess and Red Sox. Plus, the back end of the rotation is underwhelming, even when Bedard returns.
Philadelphia: Randy Wolf is out with injuries, and the Phils might be feeling the heat to make a move after several years of underachieving. There only barely still in the running, 5.5 back of the Nats but in fourth place.
L.A. (Dodgers, of course; I refuse to say the Angels are from L.A.): Not a great candidate, but Odalis Perez is recovering from injury and Jeff Weaver wishes it was three years ago in Detroit, when he was good.
Well, there are a few of the possibilities. San Diego is really the only contending team for which Boone would be an upgrade at second. Both Winn and Moyer are the sort of player that teams want to add for a penant run--not too pricey, little to no long-term commitment, experience. The only problem is that some of the divisional titles are quickly becoming unrealistic goals for a lot of teams.
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
Laying Henry Chadwick to rest...The Seattle Times
Henry Chadwick developed the box score. Chadwick thought the batter should get no credit for a walk--which is why at-bats do not count walks, and why batting average is consequently scoffed on by mathematically literate baseball fans. Allan Roth, a statistician hired by Branch Rickey (he who developed the concept of a farm system and who signed Jackie Robinson), demonstrated in the 1960s that on-base percentage and slugging percentage were far superior measures of offensive production, and yet we still see Avg., RBI, and HR totals in most mainstream newsmedia today.
The Seattle Times is changing that. Jeff Angus, a member of the Northwest chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research who has recently begun writing a sabermetric column for the Times, reports that the Times will be featuring more sabermetric-friendly stats in print every Tuesday.
Angus also tells the NW SABR list-serve that:
The Seattle Times is changing that. Jeff Angus, a member of the Northwest chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research who has recently begun writing a sabermetric column for the Times, reports that the Times will be featuring more sabermetric-friendly stats in print every Tuesday.
Angus also tells the NW SABR list-serve that:
- I think this is the first time a daily newspaper has run a full
Sabermetric surrogate for the Leaders Tables. If it runs weekly as
planned, I'm pretty confident it will be a first.
Thursday, May 19, 2005
So much for numbers
From last night's broadcast:
Of course, this is a silly argument, because the problem isn't numbers in general, it's the sample size. Sort of like adopting total philosophical relativism as a reaction against total determinism.
Actually, the overal numbers of this game suggest the M's got the large end of the wishbone for this game--which is fine, because somebody's got to get lucky. But NY had 11 hits to Seattle's 10, 6 walks to our 1, 15 total bases to our 14. So much for numbers. The breaks went our way, the Yankee errors and our hits happen at just the right time, and we avoid the sweep.
Still, is this game any indication the M's can turn it around, at least a little? As I see, there are too many pieces missing right now, and I'm not talking about Everyotherday Guardado. Madritsch out till September, Pineiro down in Tacoma fixing his mechanics, Beltre day to day with a hamstring, Pokey Reese DOA, and our entire bench might as well be a missing piece, with the possible exception of Dave Hansen, if he still has anything left.
Still, a great game last night.
Fairly: Rodriguez is 0 for 7 against Villone. Neihaus: So was Matsui. Fairly: Well, so much for numbers. |
Actually, the overal numbers of this game suggest the M's got the large end of the wishbone for this game--which is fine, because somebody's got to get lucky. But NY had 11 hits to Seattle's 10, 6 walks to our 1, 15 total bases to our 14. So much for numbers. The breaks went our way, the Yankee errors and our hits happen at just the right time, and we avoid the sweep.
Still, is this game any indication the M's can turn it around, at least a little? As I see, there are too many pieces missing right now, and I'm not talking about Everyotherday Guardado. Madritsch out till September, Pineiro down in Tacoma fixing his mechanics, Beltre day to day with a hamstring, Pokey Reese DOA, and our entire bench might as well be a missing piece, with the possible exception of Dave Hansen, if he still has anything left.
Still, a great game last night.
Monday, May 16, 2005
Two Salamis in a week...allowed
Ouch, J.J.
Of course, hindsight being 20-20, we can all second guess Hargrove for pulling lefty George Sherrill after facing (and retiring) only one batter, since the next batter, Bernie Williams, is a switch hitter with nearly identical splits over the last three years. Not that there are many better options in the pen.
Yes, I am still alive, and waiting for Beltre and Olivo to start hitting the way we know they can.
This team still has a lot of problems, though--mostly pitching. As Larry Stone says, however, the M's have few options at this point.
Hey, we took two of three from Boston this time around, so at least it's not like the home team here in KC, where you're nearly guaranteed a loss every time they take the field. You think the M's are bad? The Royals are pathetic. As if that's much comfort.
We got a long season ahead of us, and I hope by the end of it, we'll see most of the reasons for optimism come to fruition.
Of course, hindsight being 20-20, we can all second guess Hargrove for pulling lefty George Sherrill after facing (and retiring) only one batter, since the next batter, Bernie Williams, is a switch hitter with nearly identical splits over the last three years. Not that there are many better options in the pen.
Yes, I am still alive, and waiting for Beltre and Olivo to start hitting the way we know they can.
This team still has a lot of problems, though--mostly pitching. As Larry Stone says, however, the M's have few options at this point.
Hey, we took two of three from Boston this time around, so at least it's not like the home team here in KC, where you're nearly guaranteed a loss every time they take the field. You think the M's are bad? The Royals are pathetic. As if that's much comfort.
We got a long season ahead of us, and I hope by the end of it, we'll see most of the reasons for optimism come to fruition.
Saturday, April 23, 2005
Off-topic plug
A welcome to my younger brother Phil into the wide world of blogging. Having nothing to do with the Mariners at all, he thinks seriously about things worth thinking seriously about. If that sounds interesting, drop by Ubi Caritas.
Saturday, April 16, 2005
Ichiro or 0-fer
Tough loss today, with Ichiro and Boone being the only ones to get on base. Franklin pitched a pretty darn good game, giving up two homers, but both of them solo shots.
One does wonder why, with Sexson out with the flu, Hargrove chose to play Bloomquist and Wilson instead of Reed and Olivo. Both Reed and Olivo have gotten off to a slow start, but clearly have more potential offensively than Bloomquist or Wilson.
I understand the desire to give regular players some rest, but this is the beginning of the season, when they are fresh, and Sexson was already out of the lineup. Better to rest Reed when Sexson is in the lineup, so that we don't draw a complete zero on offense.
With Wilson playing today, he's played in 6 games to Olivo's 7 (so they've obviously split some games). That's too even of a split, in my opinion, even though it is early. Let Olivo sink or swim at starting catcher, but give him the opportunity.
One does wonder why, with Sexson out with the flu, Hargrove chose to play Bloomquist and Wilson instead of Reed and Olivo. Both Reed and Olivo have gotten off to a slow start, but clearly have more potential offensively than Bloomquist or Wilson.
I understand the desire to give regular players some rest, but this is the beginning of the season, when they are fresh, and Sexson was already out of the lineup. Better to rest Reed when Sexson is in the lineup, so that we don't draw a complete zero on offense.
With Wilson playing today, he's played in 6 games to Olivo's 7 (so they've obviously split some games). That's too even of a split, in my opinion, even though it is early. Let Olivo sink or swim at starting catcher, but give him the opportunity.
Saturday, April 09, 2005
Deja Vu all over again
Bobby Madritsch, the same who led the AL in Pitcher Abuse Points per game last year, has been placed on the DL, and is still awaiting a diagnosis from an MRI. As we well know from Mariner pitchers past, the more vague the diagnosis, the more we should be worried.
Called up to take Madritsch's spot on the roster is Justin Leone, who presumably comes in 5th on the depth chart at third base, behind Beltre, Speizio, Bloomquist and Dobbs. Meanwhile, we have Bloomquist es sentially serving as our fourth outfielder (since Ibanez is DH'ing most of the time, and thus can't be put in the field without forfeiting the DH altogether for the game). Willie made a nice play last night, but why we need four backup third basemen when we have no true backup outfielders is a little baffling.
I'm glad Leone is back up in the majors, but it should be to replace Dobbs, not Madritsch. If Dobbs is untouchable, wouldn't OF Jamal Strong or pitcher George Sherrill be more usable additions to the big league roster? Can Leone play short? I doubt it, but if he could, his bat would be an upgrade over Alvarez, and he wouldn't be such a longshot to make an impact.
Called up to take Madritsch's spot on the roster is Justin Leone, who presumably comes in 5th on the depth chart at third base, behind Beltre, Speizio, Bloomquist and Dobbs. Meanwhile, we have Bloomquist es sentially serving as our fourth outfielder (since Ibanez is DH'ing most of the time, and thus can't be put in the field without forfeiting the DH altogether for the game). Willie made a nice play last night, but why we need four backup third basemen when we have no true backup outfielders is a little baffling.
I'm glad Leone is back up in the majors, but it should be to replace Dobbs, not Madritsch. If Dobbs is untouchable, wouldn't OF Jamal Strong or pitcher George Sherrill be more usable additions to the big league roster? Can Leone play short? I doubt it, but if he could, his bat would be an upgrade over Alvarez, and he wouldn't be such a longshot to make an impact.
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